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China stocks have staged such a strong rally after a protracted slump for the past few years that they're beating even the S & P 500 so far this year. The MSCI China index, which includes the mainland A-shares, Hong Kong-listed shares and U.S.-listed China names, has jumped around 9%, while the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF is up around 13%. Most analysts said whether the rally can be sustained will largely depend on China policy. How to play China Though most were bullish on China stocks, they would be selective in stock-picking. They include: SPDR S & P China ETF iShares MSCI China A ETF Global X MSCI China Consumer Disc ETF iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Persons: Bernstein, it's, , Goldman Sachs, Kevin Liu, CICC, Nomura's, Goldman, Kweichow, Ping, Morningstar, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, CSI China, Investors, CICC Research, CNBC, BYD, SAIC, Changan Automobile, Energy, Anhui, Cement, JPMorgan, Kuaishou, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Hong, China, iShares, China Consumer Locations: China, Hong Kong
Goldman Sachs has refreshed its conviction list of top stocks in Asia Pacific this month, adding some names and removing others. Here are two additions to Goldman Sachs' Asian conviction list, and two removals: China Resources Beer Goldman analyst Leaf Liu said he was positive on the outlook for Chinese beer manufacturer and distributor China Resources Beer . Goldman Sachs has a 12-month price target of 51 Hong Kong dollars ($6.51) on the stock, giving it potential upside of around 46%. NTPC India's power generation company NTPC — formerly the National Thermal Power Corporation — was another addition to Goldman's conviction list. Shionogi, China Medical System Meanwhile, the Wall Street bank removed two pharmaceutical players — Japan's Shionogi and the China-headquartered China Medical System — from its conviction list.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, China Resources Beer, Leaf Liu, CRB, , National Thermal Power Corporation —, Apoorva Bahadur, Bahadur, Goldman, — Japan's Shionogi, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MSCI Asia, China Resources, China Resources Beer Goldman, China Resources Beer, Brands, Star, Heineken, Hong, Franklin FTSE, National Thermal Power Corporation Locations: Asia Pacific, Japan, China, ,, Tianjin, premiumization, Hong Kong, Franklin FTSE China, Shionogi
A majority of respondents — 61% — in the latest CNBC Delivering Alpha Stock Survey believe the broader market has run too far, too fast heading into the second quarter and a pullback is near. The S & P 500 is up more than 9% in the first quarter, which would be its best start to a year since 2019. When it comes to investing domestically 26% said the Nasdaq 100 was the best place to be compared to 13% from the S & P 500. That stock is up 245% in a year and 120% in six months far outpacing every other stock in the S & P 500 except for Super Micro Computer . The rest think we're more likely to be in the 5%-to-10% range for an annual return for the S & P in the next decade.
Persons: Jerome Powell, mangers, they'd Organizations: CNBC, Alpha Stock Survey, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, bitcoin, Investors, Nvidia, Micro Locations: Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, South Korea, United States, China
Declining foreign investment and a prolonged property slump are just some of the issues that have put pressure on the Chinese economy — and stock market. We're still relatively underweight China, but we've been reducing that underweight [as] some of the stocks there have become really, really cheap." China Market Research Group's Shaun Rein agrees. "If you're a multinational, if you're looking to drive growth over the next three to five years, the next China is China. Shares in Fufeng are held in the iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF , while Xinyi Glass shares are held in the Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF and SPDR S & P China ETF .
Persons: Kamil Dimmich, CNBC's, we've, Shaun Rein, it's, Salomon, Arc'teryx, Dimmich Organizations: Shanghai, South Capital, Research, Amer Sports, New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Fufeng Group, Ford, General Motors, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Xinyi, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE Hong Kong ETF Locations: China, It's, India, Vietnam, Franklin FTSE Hong
The World(MSCI All Country World Index weighting)Entire U.S. stock market: 63%Japan, UK, Canada, France, Hong Kong/China combined: 17.5%Magnificent 7: 17%Source: Dimensional FundsThat seems crazy, no? For example, in the mid-1960s the concentration of the top 10 was over 40% of the S&P 500. Investors who own the S&P 500 don't have to pick those winners; they just go along for the ride. Second, U.S. stocks are global market leaders, and when a small group becomes market leaders it almost always means the U.S. stock market outperforms the world. The U.S. stock market, which was roughly 40% of the global market capitalization a short while ago, is now roughly 50% of global market capitalization.
Persons: Gregory Rowe, Berkshire Hathaway, Lilly, It's, Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Berkshire, Broadcom, Nvidia, Eck Semiconductor, Dimensional Fund Advisors, FS Investments, IBM, American Express, General Electric, Polaroid, Xerox, U.S, Baidu, SAP, Siemens, United, Shell, AstraZeneca, HSBC Locations: New York City, Miami Beach, Japan, UK, Canada, France, Hong Kong, China, U.S, Germany, United Kingdom
To grow, the ETF industry has to expand the offerings of active management and devise new ways to entice investors. The big topics in 2024: Bitcoin, AI, Magnificent 7 alternativesIn 2024, the industry is betting that the new crop of bitcoin ETFs will pull in billions. Financial advisors are divided on whether to jump inTen spot bitcoin ETFs have successfully launched. Inflows into bitcoin ETFs to date have been modest, but bitcoin ETFs are being viewed by some advisors as the first true bridge between traditional finance and the crypto community. Jason Pereira, senior partner & financial Planner, Woodgate Financial, is speaking on how financial advisors are using artificial intelligence.
Persons: Matt Hougan, Steve Kurz, David LaValle, Ric Edelman, Edelman, Gary Gensler's, bitcoin, Jason Pereira, Pereira, Roundhill's, Alex Zweber, Eric Veiel, Rowe Price, Brian Portnoy, Neil Bage, feely Organizations: ETF, LIV, Miami, Super, Advisors, JPMorgan, bitcoin, Galaxy, Edelman, Digital Assets, Financial Professionals, SEC, Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, China ETF Locations: Fontainebleau, Miami Beach, China, bitcoin
The India SENSEX Index, an index of 30 large companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, is up 18% this year. The iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) is at a new high. You run several international ETFs focused on the internet and ecommerce, including the India Internet & Ecommerce ETF (INQQ). The internet companies are the fastest growing consumer companies. The India Internet economy may grow 500% by 2030.
Persons: Burton Malkiel, Kevin Carter, Todd Sohn, There's Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, Edge, Chemical Bank, Princeton University, EMQQ, India, Ecommerce, Strategas Securities, Microsoft, Apple, India's Tata Group, Bajaj Financial, China ETF, White House Locations: Europe, India, China, United States
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Other large China-focused ETFs, including the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI.O), KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.P), also showed upbeat options activity, according to Trade Alert data. "It certainly seems that there is generally bullish positioning ahead of the meeting," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noting that the positions had been built up over several days. Reuters GraphicsInvestors' nascent enthusiasm for Chinese stocks is at odds with how these ETF's have performed this year. Daniel Kirsch, head of options at Piper Sandler, said recent bullish options flows into KWEB may be to do with a combination of enthusiasm ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting as well as results from Chinese e-commerce companies JD.com and Alibaba .
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden's, Xi Jinping, Steve Sosnick, Biden, Xi, Sosnick, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, JD.com, Kirsch, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, iShares, KraneShares CSI China Internet, Interactive, Federal, Economic Cooperation, Reuters Graphics Investors, Research, Biden, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, KraneShares, San Francisco, Asia
A lackluster economic backdrop in China shouldn't keep Wall Street from buying opportunities in the world's second-largest economy, some investors say. Consumer growth bets Kirby named Yum China as one quality stock idea. He also expects Yum China could still benefit from a rebound in consumer spending in China. It's a spending category the fund manager doesn't expect will suffer from any weakness in the macro backdrop. Yum China is higher this year by more than 4%.
Persons: Ben Kirby, Kirby, Duke, It's, James Donald, Thornburg's Kirby Organizations: Thornburg Investment Management, KFC, Technology, doesn't, Lazard Investment, Lenovo Locations: China, Beijing, Botox, U.S
Chinese stock markets have failed to perform in 2023. All three major indexes have lost money for investors over the past week, month, three months, six months, and year. As a result, shorting the Chinese currency has been one of the most profitable investments this year, according to analysis by CNBC Pro of FactSet's ETF performance data. CNBC Pro screened for global China-focused ETFs that have posted positive returns this year to date. A weighted average analysts' price target for companies in the ETF points toward a further 22.4% upside over the next 12 months, according to FactSet data.
Persons: Thierry Wizman, Goldman Sachs, Brent Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Shanghai, Index, U.S, CNBC Pro, Singapore ., London Stock Exchange, U.S ., Macquarie, People's Bank of, China Energy, New York Stock Exchange, bbl, Goldman, Dragon, China Communication Services Locations: Shenzhen, China, New York, London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Singapore, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, Dragon China, U.S
However, some investors believe a bearish China story is shifting the spotlight onto investment opportunities in other Asian markets. Morgan Stanley downgraded the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) to equal weight from overweight in early August, citing lower earnings growth expectations and structural challenges. Opportunity in Japan Japan currently stands out as a "particularly attractive" investment play, according to Horizon Investments chief investment officer Scott Ladner. Investors can get access to the Japanese market through the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) , which has an expense ratio of 0.5% and more than $13 billion in assets. Ways to play the space include the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) , the Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF (FLKR) and the iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (EWT) .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Wells, Jay Bryson, Scott Ladner, Ladner, Seth Carpenter, it's, Carlos Asilis, China —, Asilis, Franklin Templeton's FLKR, we've Organizations: Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Glovista Investments, Korea ETF, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF, U.S Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Japan Japan, Japan, Asia, Pacific, South Korea, Taiwan, Korea, Franklin FTSE South, Australia, India, Vietnam, Indonesia
Morgan Stanley has decided to take a break, downgrading MSCI China to equal weight while recommending a few consumer and industrial names. The Politburo meeting signaled policy easing, but outstanding issues — of debt, property, jobs and geopolitics — need significant improvement for sustainable inflows, the Morgan Stanley analysts said. Morgan Stanley has so far only changed it once this year: a cut in July to 5%. And despite their downgrade of Chinese stocks, the analysts added two mainland-traded A shares to their focus list. In its latest report, Morgan Stanley analysts also turned overweight on India.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Laura Wang, Fran Chen, Wood, Warren Buffett, behemoth BlackRock, Biden, Liqian Ren, Ren, Hang Seng, Jack Ma's Alibaba, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, WisdomTree's Ren doesn't, Ren doesn't, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S, Chinese Communist Party, China ETF, WisdomTree Trust, Owned Enterprises ETF, Wall, JPMorgan, Baidu, State, Owned Enterprise Fund, Ping An Insurance Locations: China, . U.S, WisdomTree, WisdomTree Trust China, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's China, Hong Kong, India
Reuters analysis shows a massive jump in the assets of emerging market (EM) mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that exclude China as U.S. and European investors turn more wary of being exposed to the Asian giant. Other investors are simply moving to markets with better growth prospects, such as Brazil. The scale of change needed in global supply chains could drive such capital flows for the next decade, he said. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex-China ETF , the world's largest emerging market ex-China ETF whose biggest holdings are firms in Taiwan, South Korea and India, attracted a record $1 billion net inflow in the first half of 2023, the data showed. "China is the one major country that investors are most concerned about in EM," said John Lau, portfolio manager for Asia Pacific and emerging market equities at SEI.
Persons: Aly, Malcolm Dorson, John Lau, Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, , Benjamin Low, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Biden, Wong Kok Hoi, Summer Zhen, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Global, China ETF, China, Asia Pacific, SEI, Stock Connect, Morningstar, China Opportunity Equity Fund, Fund, Boston, Cambridge Associates, CSI, Nikkei, Investors, Reuters Graphics, APS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, U.S, Mexico, India, Vietnam, Brazil, New York, Taiwan, South Korea, Asia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, “ U.S
Other investors are simply moving to markets with better growth prospects, such as Brazil. The scale of change needed in global supply chains could drive such capital flows for the next decade, he said. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex-China ETF , the world's largest emerging market ex-China ETF whose biggest holdings are firms in Taiwan, South Korea and India, attracted a record $1 billion net inflow in the first half of 2023, the data showed. "China is the one major country that investors are most concerned about in EM," said John Lau, portfolio manager for Asia Pacific and emerging market equities at SEI. “U.S., Canadian, and some European investors are exiting China due to political pressure.
Persons: Aly, Malcolm Dorson, John Lau, Goldman Sachs, Jeffrey Jaensubhakij, , Benjamin Low, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Biden, Wong Kok Hoi, Summer Zhen, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: REUTERS, Global, China ETF, China, Asia Pacific, SEI, Stock Connect, Morningstar, China Opportunity Equity Fund, Fund, Boston, Cambridge Associates, CSI, Nikkei, Investors, Reuters Graphics, APS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG KONG, U.S, Mexico, India, Vietnam, Brazil, New York, Taiwan, South Korea, Asia, Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada, “ U.S
Jade Gao | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's economic recovery from the pandemic is set to broaden, meaning the country isn't headed toward Japan-style stagnation just yet, according to Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu. The meeting, led by Premier Li Qiang, noted the foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid. Similar, but not the same as, Japan"While the worst is behind us, the recovery is far from being self-sustaining," Macquarie's Hu said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon iShares MSCI China ETF"The absence of a self-sustained recovery in China today is mainly a cyclical, not structural, phenomenon," Hu said. The iShares MSCI China ETF is down by about 4% so far this year.
Persons: Jade Gao, Larry Hu, Hu, Macquarie, China's, Premier Li Qiang, Macquarie's Hu, Japan's Organizations: Afp, Getty, BEIJING, China, State Council, Premier, Companies Locations: Beijing, Japan, China
Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru
The Inflation Reduction Act does more than buoy U.S. clean energy stocks – it's also an opportunity for emerging markets firms. But the IRA also represents an opportunity for emerging markets firms. "This is a win, win, win," said Paul Desoisa, co-portfolio manager of the Global Emerging Markets strategy at Martin Currie, a specialist investment manager at Franklin Templeton. Here are some places where emerging markets firms stand to benefit. Some possible contenders include Korea's Hanwha Solutions, a multinational with a solar energy business Hanwha Qcells, abrdn's Khwaja said.
The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) could be a good bet for investors bullish on Beijing, according to Michael Khouw of Optimize Advisors. "I think this is sort of a risk-mitigated way to make a bullish bet if you're inclined to go that way," he said Tuesday on CNBC's "Fast Money." A call option gives the buyer the right but not the obligation to buy a security at a specified price and by a set date. A call spread strategy is a bet that an asset's price will rise within a specified range: An investor uses two call options, one with a lower strike price and one with a higher strike price, to create that range. The ETF has gained 3.4% this year, meaning it has underperformed the broader S & P 500 's 6.8% gain.
But the euphoria around the reopening has since tapered off, with several key benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China paring some of their gains since the beginning of the year. The pullback could be a good opportunity for investors to buy Chinese stocks at more palatable prices, according to Bernstein analyst Rupal Agarwal. A-shares are shares of publicly listed Chinese companies that trade on Chinese stock exchanges. The trading of H-shares is done on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Hong Kong dollars. Given China's strict capital controls, A-shares are generally available for trading only to mainland Chinese citizens, while H-shares are more freely tradeable.
International equities have outperformed their U.S. counterparts by more than 4%, but investors should choose carefully, said Jared Woodard, investment and ETF strategist at Bank of America, in a note to clients on Monday. "International dividends ( GCOW ), emerging markets ex-China ( EMXC ), and Canada ( FLCA ) should comprise long term international holdings," the note said. The global version is already off to a solid start in 2023, with a total return of about 6%. The fund, which has $3 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.25%, already has a total return of more than 5% in 2023. The Canada fund has a total return of more than 8% year to date.
The most crowded trade on Wall Street is "long China equities," according to the latest Bank of America Fund manager survey. Twenty-one percent of respondents to the February survey said that was the investment with the most enthusiasm... perhaps too much. Still, the "most crowded" trades in the survey, which is among the most followed on Wall Street, can stay that way for long stretches. Long China displaces "long U.S. dollar," which was the most crowded trade for the prior seven months in the survey. China equities traded in the U.S. were under pressure for a number of reasons, including the country's Covid lockdowns, as well as tighter scrutiny of its homegrown internet businesses.
But when US stocks deliver low annualized returns over a 10-year period, international stocks almost always deliver better performance. They included: global value vs. growth; emerging value equities; Japanese small value; and European small value. Among those, Inker and GMO are plugging the most money into global value and emerging market value stocks. Perfect timing would have seen investors hold their fire in emerging markets in 2001-02 to hit the very bottom. "Emerging-markets value, international value represent bargains.
They're emphasizing growth right now," van Eck said at the Exchange ETF conference in Miami. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) had a total return of more than 10% this year, through Feb. 3. MCHI YTD mountain This popular China ETF is outperforming in 2023. Van Eck pointed to the outsized growth of major U.S. tech firms as a key reason for that outperformance, but said that era appears to be over. "We've got a decade where you're really taking a risk if you're under invested overseas," van Eck said.
China is reopening and investors are ready for it. After a bruising 2022, hedge funds have been adding positions in Chinese stocks. Carter points out that even with China's outperformance this year, the MSCI China ETF is trading at 12 times earnings versus a Nasdaq valuation of 22 times earnings. HBSC analysts are recommending Yum China , saying the company is set to benefit from restaurants reopening. With the Lunar New Year underway, travel analyst Jake Fuller at BTIG raised his estimates on Booking Holdings for the first quarter citing "strong trends so far in January" and "China's reopening."
The iShares MSCI emerging market Asia exchange traded fund is up 11% and the iShares core MSCI emerging markets ETF is up more than 10% since the year began. For Kotler, it's emerging market bonds, where his firm has an overweight rating as opposed to a neutral rating on equities. One other factor that should help emerging market countries outperform in 2023 is the winding down of the strength of the U.S. dollar. Some top emerging market bond funds include the iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF , the Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF and the VanEck JP Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF. Of course, the downside to large emerging market funds is that they tend to be most heavily weighted to China, as it's the largest emerging market country.
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